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Military potential of the 3 seas countries against the backdrop of the rest of eu-27

The Three Seas is a significant socio-economic bloc of twelve EU countries straddling the area between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas. Together, the Three Seas countries are inhabited by 111 million Europeans (25% of the EU’s population) and are the fourth largest economic region in Europe (after Germany, the UK and France), contributing 14% of the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The study called Military potential of the 3 Seas countries against the backdrop of the Rest of EU-27 presents a collation of key military data on the Three Seas countries compared with Rest of EU-27 countries.

Military data covered in the study include the Power Index, manpower (as of 2022 and trends between 2015 and 2022), manpower per million inhabitants (as of 2022), defence expenditure (as of 2022 and trends between 2015 and 2022), defence expenditure (as of 2022) as % of the GDP as well as the 2022 inventory of fighter jets, tanks and rocket projectors.

The comparisons look across individual countries within the Three Seas bloc and the
Rest of EU‑27 countries, as well as between aggregates for Three Seas and Rest of EU-27.

The study provides insights on how the military power of the Three Seas compares against Rest of EU-27 countries. Key insights are that Poland’s military is ranked as the strongest in the Three Seas bloc, and third strongest (after France and Italy) in the whole EU-27, based on the Power Index. Poland’s position is even more impressive when seen through the lens of the fact that defence expenditure of the 3 Seas counties is almost 6 times smaller than that of the Rest of EU-27 countries. However, between 2015 and 2022 defence expenditure in the Three Seas grew faster (7% per year) than in the case of the Rest of EU-27 countries (4% per year). Interestingly, in the case of the 3 Seas countries, one million inhabitants is protected by nearly 3,400 military personnel. The number for the Rest of EU-27 countries is smaller, at roughly 2,900 military personnel per one million inhabitants.

Military potential of the 3 Seas countries against the backdrop of the Rest of EU-27 is an invaluable source of high-level knowledge for political decision-makers and subject matter analysts. The study may help discover opportunities in the area, inform political discussion or serve decision‑making purposes.

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